The projected Padres rotation heading into the 2017 season is a patchwork of free agent signees. They desperately need some homegrown, young talent to stabilize matters and climb out of the N.L. West basement. The closest Padres product would be Colin Rea, who under went TJ surgery in November. The Padres even traded Rea over to the Marlins at the trade deadline, but then got him returned for the Luis Castillo swap. Robbie Erlin wasn’t drafted by the Friars, but has been around the system since 2011 and is also on the DL from TJ surgery from back in May 2016.
An examination of the past UTR-OAS lists isn’t a convincing audit that help is on the way. The roster from 2014 was an ensemble of fringy arms. Long forgotten 1st round pick from 2011 would be RHP Michael Kelly, who could quite possibly sneak into a rotation spot sometime in 2017. When Kelly made the OAS mention, he just completed a repeat performance at Short Season Eugene, but as a starter. The 2013 season working from the bullpen was indicative of a top round choice. I wrote of Kelly (after the 2014 season) that he may have caught the development wave. He took a step back in 2015, which saw his TPS (.183) spike almost 100 points from 2014 (.088) during his first season of full-time ball at Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. Last season, he made it through three levels to Triple-A El Paso, and though his numbers were pedestrian, his TPS fell to .106. Very respectable, which leads me to believe he will be in PetCo at some point this season. The other pitchers waiting their turn at Triple-A are: Bryan Rodriguez, Kyle Lloyd, and 2016 “One to Watch” Dinelson Lamet. I’m still high on Lamet and really like his 20% strikeout rate during his time at Double-A San Antonio. Lamet, as well as Lloyd, went on to repeat as a UTR-OAS in 2015 and got the “Legit UTR” tag. Lloyd possesses a split-finger fastball which could be the best pitch within the organization. Keep an eye on him in 2017. Another “Legit UTR” is Adrian De Horta who has been in the Padres system since 2013, but has yet to unharness his wares. He hasn’t been able to break free from the Padres rookie leagues only throwing 87 innings over the last two seasons. The 21-year old right-hander has struggled with his control and showed improvement in 2016 from the relief role. My 2016 “One to Watch” Thomas Dorminy had a see-saw season in 2016. He started off well at LoA Fort Wayne and labored at HiA Lake Elsinore, though seeing a bump in his K9 rate. Lastly, Emmanuel Ramirez wraps-up the periphery arms from the OAS list in 2015. Only 22 years old, Ramirez made his U.S. debut last season making his way to Fort Wayne. If your dynasty team is set for pitching in the next couple years, it might be best to watch for movers within the Padres low minors. The the next two seasons worth of UTR-OAS may provide a few decent arms to stash in 2018 or 2019.
Top 5 Starting Pitchers – Factor Score / TPS 1. RHP Brett Kennedy – 17 / .087- 22 years old – (LoA Fort Wayne / HiA Lake Elsinore)
- 11th round – 2015
- Kennedy was a fast-mover in his first full season after only 30 innings in the rookie Northwest League in 2015. Between that stint, then starting 2016 with LoA Fort Wayne, Kennedy proved to be a strike-thrower averaging a 32 percent K-rate. He received a promotion to HiA in early May, and over 113 innings, posted an above average K-rate of 22.3 percent. Kennedy attacks with a two and four-seam fastball that both range in the mid-90s’ along with a decent slider and curve.
- 22 years old – (LoA Fort Wayne / HiA Lake Elsinore / Double-A San Antonio / Triple-A El Paso)
- 4th round – 2012
- Call him….Walker, Padres Pitcher. Andrew “Walker” Lockett could be the first “truly” Padres product to pitch in PetCo in a long time. He took a huge step in that direction last season rising through four levels and earning an invite to Spring Training this year. The organization added the projectable framed (6’5″- 225 lbs) righty to the 40-man roster back in November, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. Lockett led all Padres minor pitchers with 164 innings (career high) of work and posted a 1.3 BB/9 rate (24 walks). He works the count with a 95 mph fastball with sink. He projects as a ‘pound the zone’ innings-eating type that could/should crack the SD rotation in 2017.
- 23 years old – (HiA Lake Elsinore)
- 14th round – 2014
- Huffman projects as a ‘pitch-to-contact’ type that can eat innings at the back of the rotation. He repeats as a UTR-OAS for the Padres and a “Legit UTR.” He had a solid season at Fort Wayne and followed up in 2016 at Lake Elsinore. A strong, athletic right-hander, Huffman throws a low 90’s fastball (topping out at 94) with an above average slider. 2017 could be the make or break season for the 23-year old at Double-A San Antonio.
- 2o years old – (LoA Fort Wayne)
- 17th round – 2014
- Cosme was slated to be my “One to Watch” for the Baltimore Orioles prior to the 2016 season, had he not been traded to San Diego back in February. The tall lanky right-hander made 28 starts in his first taste of full season ball posting an 8-8 record with 3.22 ERA and 4.09 K/BB ratio. Cosme’s delivery generates velocity with a low effort delivery of mid 90’s fastball. His pitches play at the lower levels, with deception and loopy stuff. He could get lost at Lake Elsinore and isn’t guaranteed a rotation spot. He will be joining the likes of the newly acquired Anderson Espinoza, Logan Allen, and past UTR’s of Thomas Dorminy, Pedro Avila, Chris Paddack.
- 20 years old – (LoA Fort Wayne)
- 3rd round – 2015
- Nix should be included with that group being assigned at Lake Elsinore for 2017. He had a solid year, but I read that if he had a decent defense behind him at Fort Wayne, he could have had a head-turning season. He made improvements with his stuff slashing his BB/9 rate from 7.7 in 2015 to 4.0 last year. His fastball clocks in at 92-94, maxing out at 96 with decent movement. We must remember that Nix was drafted out of high school, so he’s light-years ahead in his development. He’s had issues with his delivery, but it’s apparent that is far behind him. Recent reports now state Nix has a repeatable delivery with good arm action.
- 23 years old – (LoA Fort Wayne / HiA Lake Elsinore / Triple-A El Paso)
- 20th round – 2015
- This guy could impact the bullpen at PetCo in a big way.
- 24 years old – (HiA Lake Elsinore / Double-A San Antonio / Triple-A El Paso)
- 36th round – 2014
- 24 years old – (HiA Lake Elsinore / Double-A San Antonio)
- 7th round – 2014
- Past UTR-OAS (2014) with the Mets now in San Diego
Under The Radar Minors 